Warmest autumn since 1950
France recorded its mildest autumn since 1950, meteorologists said on Tuesday, part of a spell of warm weather across Europe that affected the migration patterns of thousands of birds. What is it? The warmest autumn since 1950.
Over the past three months, temperatures have been 2.9 degrees Celsius above seasonal normal, which is 3.3 degrees above the average for October, according to Michel Schneider, an engineer at Meteo France.
The weather has been unusually mild across western Europe, from Scandinavia to Germany and Switzerland — where zoologists say the dreary weather has delayed many birds from their winter migration south. Is [present gift]
French Alps and Pyrenees.
In the French Alps and Pyrenees, ski station operators are anxiously awaiting the first signs of snow as they prepare to start the winter season, with milder weather expected to last until December.
But for Matteo France’s Serge Plantin, it’s too early to attribute the trend directly to global warming.
“It fits with what one would expect (as a result of global warming) but it’s not enough to draw any conclusions,” he said, explaining that the climate pattern is seen as significant. It has to cover many decades.
Overview
Autumn 2019 was characterized by above-average sea level pressure in the east of New Zealand, resulting in above-normal northerly winds across the country. This, combined with mean sea surface temperatures around New Zealand’s coastlines, resulted in autumn temperatures that were (+0.51 °C to +1.20 °C above the autumn mean) or above average. was higher (>1.20 °C in autumn). average) for the season throughout the majority of the nation. The national average temperature for autumn 2019 was 14.4 °C (1.17 °C above the 1981–2010 average of NIWA’s seven-station temperature series beginning in 1909), a New Zealand record. But the fourth-warmest fall, and only 0.02°C cooler than the fall of 1999, the third-warmest fall on record.[TechCrunchses]
Fall 2019 began with above-average temperatures across the country during March. It tied for the 2nd-warmest March on record, and many locations saw record or near-record warm averages, the mean largest. Or average smallest temperatures during that time. The warmest autumn temperature recorded at Waipara West was 32.4 °C on 5 March. Temperatures during April were near average for the time of year (-0.50° to +0.50°C average). And the lowest autumn temperature of -6.0°C observed at Renferley on 7 April. The season ended on a warm note as New Zealand experienced its third warmest May on record. Many locations also observed record or near-record warm average, mean maximum, or mean minimum temperatures during the month.
Learn more…Hillcrest Elementary
Temperature: 4th warmest autumn on record
This was New Zealand’s 4th warmest autumn on record. Temperatures were either above average (+0.51°C to +1.20°C above autumn average) or significantly above average (1.20°C above autumn average) in most parts of the country. Only a handful of isolated locations near average temperatures (+0.50°C to -0.50°C) were observed, including Auckland, parts of Northland, and the coast north of Kaikoura. Several locations in the South Island experienced their warmest autumn on record. Of these, the largest departure from the normal mean autumn temperature was 13.9 °C at Reefton, which is 2.1 °C above the average for that location (records dating back to 1960).
The South West Cape was just below this at 12.8 °C, 2.0 °C warmer than the autumn average (records there start in 1991). Several locations around New Zealand experienced record average maximum (ie daytime) air temperatures including Taupo (19.8°C) and Lake Tekapo (17.6°C), both of which were 2.5°C above the mean for the time of year, the largest anomalies in this category. A handful of locations in the South Island also saw record average minimum (ie overnight) air temperatures, with the largest anomaly observed at Farewell Spit where the average overnight temperature was 13.3°C. C (2.3°C warmer than average. For autumn)
Winter holiday season approaching
Looking further ahead for the East Coast, long-range models are suggesting cold, stormy weather for 7 to 14 days. May spread to most parts of the Northeast in time. This is coupled with a jet stream blocking pattern that is predicted to emerge as the NAO becomes strongly negative.
TWC’s Crawford recently reviewed the predicted decline in the NAO and found two notable November analogs, both during La Niña years: 1950 and 2010. On both occasions, severe high-latitude blocking continued throughout December, and colder-than-average weather dominated the eastern U.S. The start will be cold,” Crawford said in an update to clients on Tuesday. [articalplus]
Most Northeasterners will remember the winter of 2010-11 for the onslaught of blizzards that were in late December. The great Groundhog Day blizzard surpassed by. And the Great Appalachian Storm of November 1950, which came right after Thanksgiving. The severe storm produced extreme cold, all-time low barometric pressure. And powerful winds across the Great Lakes and much of the Northeast. Much of eastern Ohio covered with 20-30 inches of snow. Asheville, NC, dipped to 1°F; And there was major flooding in eastern Pennsylvania. With winds of 108 mph in Newark, N.J., and 160 mph in Mount Washington, N.H., it was the costliest storm on record for U.S. insurers to date.
Summary
California has experienced devastating fall wildfires in recent years. These fall wildfires coincided with severe fire weather conditions during strong sea breezes that coincided with dry vegetation leading to unusually warm conditions and a late onset of fall rains. In this study, we assess observed changes in the occurrence and intensity of climate factors. That makes fall wildfires more likely in California and determines. Whether these changes related to human-induced climate change. are attributed to changes, using climate models. We show that statewide increases in fall temperatures (∼1°C). And decreases in fall precipitation (∼30%) have reduced fire season indices (+20%) over the past four decades. ) has played an important role in the increase. As a result, the observed frequency of fall days with extreme (95 percent) fire seasons—which we associate with extreme fall. Wildfires—has more than doubled in California since the early 1980s. Climate model estimates of these extreme fall conditions have increased since ∼. With a trend towards single-season co-occurrences of extreme fire weather. Conditions in northern and southern California. The long-term trend is also included.
Our climate model analyzes show that continued climate change. Will further increase the number of days with severe fire season by the end of this century. Although the United Nations’ Paris commitments have a path to reducing this increase. Will stop quite a bit. Given the severe societal impact of fall wildfires in recent years. Our findings have important relevance for ongoing efforts to address wildfire risks in California and other regions.[Civil Construction]
